June 3, 2020
Please download the latest chart book, V-U-L-nerability: How will we emerge from the Great Lockdown?
- COVID-19 has exposed vulnerabilities in our economic, social, and health systems.
- Economic outcomes vary, but most economies are likely to see GDP declines in Q2 that dwarf the slowdown experienced during the global financial crisis. China saw this in Q1.
- The ability to recover and return to previous growth levels is highly dependent on health, economic, and public policymaking; countries with strong health care systems and a willingness to transcend policy differences have so far seen better economic outcomes.
- Many industries will be forever changed by shifts to digital modes of operating during COVID-19.
- Supply chains are likely to be optimized for redundancy and resiliency rather than purely based on economic efficiency.
- U.S. growth will likely take until 2021 to be positive on a year-over-year basis and until after 2024 to reach 2019 levels.
KPMG’s Office of the Chief Economist is continuously monitoring key developments in this unprecedented situation and refinements to the economic model occur daily. To learn about our current scenario analysis, including deep background on the underlying cause and effect dynamics, please download our latest report, V-U-L-nerability: How will we emerge from the Great Lockdown?
Due to the rapidly evolving nature of this situation, we update this analysis frequently. Please check back often for our latest report.