The latest analysis from the Office of the Chief Economist “Economic Growth in a Time of Disequilibrium: Examining supply and demand imbalances caused by Covid-19” delves into the current state of disequilibrium in the economy and what it means for the recovery. We encourage you to review and download the report to understand how the current economic environment impacts your business.
The latest analysis provides insight into the following key areas:
A strong vaccination program and fiscal support across the U.S. is driving a surge in demand as re-opening progresses. Will this surge continue?
The slow recovery in many emerging market economies is leading to supply disruptions in everything from plastics to palm oil. What will this do to supply chains and price in the face of rising demand? When will we move from disequilibrium to equilibrium?
Labor Market Overview
The disequilibrium in the prices for goods and the friction in the labor market will govern how quickly the recovery can advance. What are the potential scenarios for the labor market?
Looking Past the Pandemic
In order to separate the signal from the noise within the disequilibrium, we examine past episodes of disequilibrium as well as some of the supply /demand dynamics in the current cycle. Learn about our hypothesis about the future trajectory of growth potential in the U.S.