Insight

Economic Growth in a Time of Disequilibrium

Examining supply and demand imbalances caused by COVID-19

The latest analysis from the Office of the Chief Economist “Economic Growth in a Time of Disequilibrium: Examining supply and demand imbalances caused by Covid-19” delves into the current state of disequilibrium in the economy and what it means for the recovery. We encourage you to review and download the report to understand how the current economic environment impacts your business.

The latest analysis provides insight into the following key areas:

    U.S. Overview
    A strong vaccination program and fiscal support across the U.S. is driving a surge in demand as re-opening progresses. Will this surge continue?

    Inflation Overview
    The slow recovery in many emerging market economies is leading to supply disruptions in everything from plastics to palm oil. What will this do to supply chains and price in the face of rising demand? When will we move from disequilibrium to equilibrium? 

    Labor Market Overview
    The disequilibrium in the prices for goods and the friction in the labor market will govern how quickly the recovery can advance. What are the potential scenarios for the labor market?

    Looking Past the Pandemic
    In order to separate the signal from the noise within the disequilibrium, we examine past episodes of disequilibrium as well as some of the supply /demand dynamics in the current cycle.  Learn about our hypothesis about the future trajectory of growth potential in the  U.S. 

Due to the rapidly evolving nature of this situation, we update this analysis frequently. Please check back often for our latest report.
 

Constance L  Hunter

Constance L Hunter

Principal and Chief Economist, KPMG US

+1 212-954-3396



Research highlights 

Explore key findings from our latest economic analysis

Inflation to level set above 2% rate but within Fed’s comfort zone

Details from labor report tell more complete COVID-19 story

Higher tax receipts at the end of expansions help debt levels


 

Get the latest economic insight and updates published by the Office of the Chief Economist

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