Fed Crosses the Line
Inflation is not expected to cool enough to justify cuts in the fed funds rate until late in 2023 or early 2024.
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Jobs were Plentiful in July
Higher demand continued in every state.
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August Industrial Production is a Tale of Two Industries, and Weather
August came in weaker than expected but business manufacturing outweighed consumer weakness.
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Consumers Opened Their Wallets in August
Lower gas prices eased pressure on households.
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Powell Legacy At Stake
Fed prioritizes price stability above all else.
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August Core Inflation Sizzles
Core inflation likely to push yearend policy rate to 4.5%.
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Trade deficit narrows for fourth consecutive month
Exports were at an all-time high in July.
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Workers Return in August
The Fed is determined to cool inflation by increasing the supply of workers.
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Construction Spending Ebbs in July
As the housing market enters a recession, the nonresidential and public sectors are picking up the baton for construction spending in the short term.
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Demand for Workers Was Resilient in July
Demand for workers was resilient in July.
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Labor Hoarding Could Impact August Payrolls
Staff shortages remain in pivotal sectors like education and child care.
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Consumers Spent Less than Expected in July
High inflation is causing households to dip into savings to fund expenditures.
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Momentum Slows from June
Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defense orders and more closely track overall business investing plans, rose by 0.4% in July.
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Home Sales Sink
Mortgage applications to purchase a home now sit at the lowest level since 2016.
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Retail Sales Flattened in July
Consumers are spending less on discretionary items as prices rise.
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Housing Starts Lose Ground as Rates Climb
Sentiment to purchase a home fell back to a record low in July.
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Signs of Revival in New Construction
Sentiment to purchase a home fell back to a record low in July.
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Vehicles Drive Rebound in Production
Surprising strength in aerospace and autos will be unable to support industrial production overall.
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Falling Gas Prices Don’t Erase Inflation
Some prices slowed during July, but inflation pressures persisted in key sectors.
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Job Gains Surge in July
Job growth expanded in July, exceeding expectations.
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Construction Spending Collapses
State and local governments have yet to spend construction funds accrued during the pandemic.
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Employment Poised to Moderate
The ranks of those with long COVID are large and appear to be rising.
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Consumers Tap Savings to Support Spending
Inflation took a larger bite out of consumers’ wallets, spending and savings in the second quarter.
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Not a Recession, Yet
We are not in recession, but inflation is taking a toll on the health of the economy.
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Surge in Defense Buoys Orders
Look for more aircraft orders in the second half.
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Powell Primes the Pump for More Rate Hikes
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the policy setting arm of the Federal Reserve – voted to hike short-term rates by another 75 basis points at its July meeting.
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Higher Interest Rates Sap Demand from Buyers in June
Sales are shrinking, contracts are falling through but prices remain high.
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Retail sales increased 1% in June, exceeding market expectations
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers his three key takeaways from the June retail sales report.
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YoY inflation rises to 9.1% in June, exceeding forecasts.
Listen to senior economist Tim Mahedy break down the June CPI data, his forecast for what the Fed might do at the next rate meeting, whether inflation might begin to ease, and if a recession is on the horizon.
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Industrial production posts 0.2% gain in May
The May industrial production numbers show the impact of rising interest rates on activity in the sector, says KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy as he breaks down the key takeaways from the latest data release.
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JUNE Industrial production video
The May industrial production numbers show the impact of rising interest rates on activity in the sector, says KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy as he breaks down the key takeaways from the latest data release.
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May retail sales declined by 0.3% m/m, missing expectations
U.S. retail sales dropped for the first time in five months, with a 0.3% m/m decline in May. While sales missed expectations, the report was not entirely negative says KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim. Watch his analysis of the report here:
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CPI rose to 8.6% in May as inflationary pressures continue to strengthen
“A lot is riding on the next couple of inflation reports,” says KPMG’s Tim Mahedy, as he breaks down the key takeaways from the May CPI report.
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The U.S. economy shows healthy job increase in May
The U.S. economy added 390,000 new jobs in May, reflecting the markets’ continued resilience despite high inflation and rising interest rates. KPMG Senior Economist, Ken Kim gives his analysis of the May report.
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Industrial production increased in April
Industrial production increased by 1.1% in April, growing twice as fast as market expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy offers his three key takeaways from the April industrial production report.
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The U.S. economy added a robust 428,000 new jobs in April
In April, the U.S. economy added 428,000 new jobs, beating market expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers his three key takeaways from the report.
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Industrial production rises in March
Industrial production rose by 0.9% m/m in March, performing well above market expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy breaks down the key takeaways from the March report.
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U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% in March
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim gives his three takeaways from the March retail sales report.
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The U.S. economy added 431,000 new jobs in March
The U.S. economy added 431,000 new jobs in March while the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% m/m. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim provides his analysis on the March 2022 jobs report.
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U.S. retail sales growth slowed to 0.3% in February
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim provides his analysis of the February retail sales report.
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U.S. economy added 678,000 jobs in February
The U.S. economy added 678,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. KPMG’s Senior Economist Ken Kim provides his analysis on the February report.
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Industrial production surged in January
Industrial production surged by 1.4% m/m in January, beating market expectations after a slight decline in December. KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy gives his three key takeaways from January’s report.
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Retail sales surged in January
U.S. retail sales surged by 3.8% m/m in January, nearly double the 2.0% rise that was expected by forecasters. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim provides his three takeaways from the January report.
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U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January
The U.S. economy added a record-setting 467,000 jobs in January, showing signs of strong economic recovery. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim provides his three takeaways from the January report.
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Omicron slows industrial production in December
Industrial production dropped 0.1% m/m in December, dipping below market expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy provides his three takeaways from December’s report and what to expect in January.
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U.S. retail sales declined by 1.9%
December U.S. retail sales declined by 1.9% m/m, sharply missing market expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim discusses his three takeaways from the December report.
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U.S. economy added 199k jobs in December
The U.S. economy added 199k jobs in December, missing market expectations. KPMG Chief Economist, Constance Hunter breaks down what today’s report means for 2022 and beyond.
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When a miss is not a miss
Digging deeper into November jobs and payroll data
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U.S. retail sales increased 0.3% in November
U.S. retail sales increased by 0.3% m/m in November, falling shy of expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim discusses key takeaways from this month’s report.
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U.S. retail sales increased by 1.7% in October
U.S. retail sales increased by 1.7% m/m in October marking the largest gain in seven months. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim discusses key takeaways from this month’s report.
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U.S. economy added 531,000 in October
The economy added 531,000 jobs in October, beating market expectations while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hunter discusses key takeaways from this month's report.
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September retail sales better than expected
As Covid-19 cases are now in a decline, we can expect to return to more normal behavior in the months ahead. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers his takeaways.
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Jobs miss market expectations in September
KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hunter discusses how the Delta variant has impacted the pace of jobs growth and other key takeaways from this month's report.
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August retail sales beat market expectations
Economic activity is still at risk as COVID-19 continues to shift the shape of the U.S. economy. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers three key takeaways.
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Weak motor vehicle sales weigh upon July's U.S. retail sales
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim is expecting the U.S. consumer to be able to cushion the impact from COVID as long as the public’s “fear of missing out” continues to outpace the “fear of going out.”
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Jobs surge in July
KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hunter & Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management discuss some of the key takeaways and how the Delta variant could impact future reports.
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June retail sales data tops expectations
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim says the stronger-than expected results point to strong GDP growth for the second quarter, which will be reported on July 29.
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Economy added 850,000 jobs in June
KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hunter says overall the report points to encouraging signs for the future.
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Retail sales drop in May
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers three key takeaways.
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May jobs report
KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hunter provides her analysis of the May 2021 Jobs Report.
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Retail sales flat in April
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers three key takeaways from the report.
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April jobs report
KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hunter provides her analysis of the April 2021 Jobs Report.
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Jobs surge in February
U.S. non-farm employment rose by 379,000 in February and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hunter provides her analysis and thoughts on what lies ahead.
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Retail sales surge in March
Retail sales surged 9.8% month over month in March easily beating market expectations of 5.8%. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers three key takeaways from the report.
