
Business investment and plans soften
Durable goods orders contracted from January to February.
Insight and analysis from KPMG economists of key monthly data releases and their impact on the health of the economy.
Durable goods orders contracted from January to February.
Consumers are saving more.
Thin supply boosts new and existing home sales.
The Fed is still fighting inflation, for now.
For every unemployed person, there were still close to two jobs available.
The Fed remains flexible and ready to act.
The soft gain in February manufacturing production belies the weakening trend.
Housing construction is showing resolve in the face of high mortgage rates.
Core retail sales and upward revisions to January bolstered the report.
Consumer prices remain high with some moderation.
Labor market participation is picking up.
Labor demand still outpaced supply though layoffs rose.
The trade deficit is expected to narrow further in 2023.
A very strong employment report could push the Fed to a ½ point increase.
The single-family home market will bring a boost to construction activity in early 2024, once rates decline.
The rebound in both core orders and shipments was stunningly strong.
Builders in the South and West are undertaking much more aggressive concessions than in other regions.
The surge in consumer spending was broad-based in both goods and services.
Risks to the downside are growing.
Manufacturing formed an outlier to other sectors.
Job openings are increasing.
The one major outlier was big-box discounters.
Shelter costs, which now make up more of the CPI than they did last year, remained elevated.
More spending on services should taper buying of imported goods.
Strong job growth could keep the Fed from cutting rates by the end of 2023.
Labor demand far outpaced labor supply in 2022.
Chairman Powell repeats he will stay the course until the job is done.
Public infrastructure spending has yet to kick in.
Low-wage job holders were forced to take on additional jobs to make ends meet when inflation flared.
Look for a shuffle in the ranks of the FOMC.
The strength of the labor market is key to what happens next.
New home sales show small signs of recovery.
Business investment plans slowed in the fourth quarter.
Fourth quarter growth resilient in the face of inflation and rate hikes.
Quits high despite technology layoffs.
Backlogs support single-family home projects.
Manufacturing activity weak almost across the board.
Few categories posted gains in December.
A drop in gasoline prices made the biggest contribution to the overall monthly decline.
Average hourly earnings continued to cool.
Job movements are high in professional and business services, in part due to retirements.
Private nonresidential spending was driven by manufacturing demand.
Look for gains in leisure and hospitality and health care jobs but fewer in construction and manufacturing.
Home prices are expected to decline.
Transportation orders hit November durables.
The silver lining is that housing responds quickly to changes in interest rates.
The labor shortage has become more secular than cyclical.
Production of both consumer goods and business equipment dropped in November.
Rate hikes are accelerating the pivot on spending from goods to services.
Market participants simply do not believe the Fed will step in and go higher for longer if inflation does not come down.
More movement is needed in services costs that are sensitive to the labor market.
A new slate of voting members on the FOMC could shift the debate.
Trade will no longer be the buffer that it was in the first half of 2022.
Average hourly earnings accelerated sharply.
Private residential construction spending continued to decline.
Expenditure increases were driven by spending on light trucks.
The labor market remains tight, with nearly two job openings for every job seeker.
October orders exhibit resiliency, but gains may be short lived
The housing market slowdown has spillover effects for consumer spending
The strong labor market is resilient.
High mortgage rates are shrinking the market for single-family homes.
Construction activity contracted sharply.
The October CPI report contains signs of slowing inflation.
Employment losses in rental, leasing and construction finishing work reflect housing weakness.
Shift away from China shrinks trade deficit with U.S.
The chairman promises to stay the course until the job is done.
We are still looking for another ¾ point rate hike this week.
Slower absorption of luxury rentals signals a downturn for multifamily next year.
The unemployment rate is expected to edge back up to 3.6%
Hiring in health care is helping to drive job gains.
Consumers are spending more than they are earning.
Durable goods ex-transportation fell the most in September since the COVID recession.
Bracing for another supply shock in energy prices.
Another 0.75% hike by the Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed next week.
We may expect that quits rates will remain high for a few months before returning to pre-pandemic levels.
Housing is one of the single largest triggers to additional consumer spending.
Gains in the core CPI were driven by gains in shelter costs.
Seeing signs of labor hoarding in the leisure and hospitality sector. .
Global demand will ease as inflation pressures increase.
Demand for workers was resilient in July.
Only the multifamily market is supporting new build.
Consumers shifted their spending to cover the necessities of shelter and food.
The unemployment rate is expected to slip back down to 3.6%.
High mortgage rates are keeping a lid on most home sales.
Some newly built, unsold homes will be rented instead.
Aircraft orders likely peaked at a major summer air show.
Inflation is not expected to cool enough to justify cuts in the fed funds rate until late in 2023 or early 2024.
Higher demand continued in every state.
Order backlogs are easing.
August came in weaker than expected but business manufacturing outweighed consumer weakness.
Even higher prices did not significantly raise the amount of dollars spent.
A resilient consumer makes the Federal Reserve’s job harder.
Lower gas prices eased pressure on households.
Fed prioritizes price stability above all else.
Core inflation likely to push yearend policy rate to 4.5%.
Exports were at an all-time high in July.
The Fed is determined to cool inflation by increasing the supply of workers.
As the housing market enters a recession, the nonresidential and public sectors are picking up the baton for construction spending in the short term.
Demand for workers was resilient in July.
Staff shortages remain in pivotal sectors like education and child care.