Business investment and plans soften
Durable goods orders contracted from January to February.
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Spending slips, inflation simmers
Consumers are saving more.
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New homes sales up monthly, down yearly
Thin supply boosts new and existing home sales.
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A dovish hike amidst a cloud of uncertainty: Risks to the downside
The Fed is still fighting inflation, for now.
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Job openings mask slowdown in key states
For every unemployed person, there were still close to two jobs available.
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A pregnant pause: Fed walks fine line
The Fed remains flexible and ready to act.
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Industrial production flat in February
The soft gain in February manufacturing production belies the weakening trend.
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Housing starts rebound
Housing construction is showing resolve in the face of high mortgage rates.
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Retail Sales Stronger Than Appearance
Core retail sales and upward revisions to January bolstered the report.
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Sticky inflation
Consumer prices remain high with some moderation.
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Employment Gains Remain Robust
Labor market participation is picking up.
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Job openings keep beating forecasts
Labor demand still outpaced supply though layoffs rose.
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Trade deficit reached $68.3B in January
The trade deficit is expected to narrow further in 2023.
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February employment expected to remain strong
A very strong employment report could push the Fed to a ½ point increase.
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Construction spending flattened after a burst of activity at year-end
The single-family home market will bring a boost to construction activity in early 2024, once rates decline.
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Drop in orders a head fake
The rebound in both core orders and shipments was stunningly strong.
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Builders step up to unload new homes
Builders in the South and West are undertaking much more aggressive concessions than in other regions.
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Incomes, spending and inflation sizzle
The surge in consumer spending was broad-based in both goods and services.
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Weak demand weighs on housing starts
Risks to the downside are growing.
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Industrial production stalled in January
Manufacturing formed an outlier to other sectors.
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Employment opportunities are growing
Job openings are increasing.
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Retail Sales Show Strength in January
The one major outlier was big-box discounters.
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Heartache For the Fed
Shelter costs, which now make up more of the CPI than they did last year, remained elevated.
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Trade Deficit Widens at End of 2022
More spending on services should taper buying of imported goods.
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Labor Hoarding Intensifies
Strong job growth could keep the Fed from cutting rates by the end of 2023.
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Historically Tight Labor Market
Labor demand far outpaced labor supply in 2022.
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Another Quarter Point Higher
Chairman Powell repeats he will stay the course until the job is done.
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Single-Family Drove December Construction Losses
Public infrastructure spending has yet to kick in.
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Employment Poised to Slow
Low-wage job holders were forced to take on additional jobs to make ends meet when inflation flared.
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Fed “Stays the Course”
Look for a shuffle in the ranks of the FOMC.
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Consumers Lose Momentum
The strength of the labor market is key to what happens next.
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Housing: First In, First Out of Recession
New home sales show small signs of recovery.
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Aircraft Lift Durable Goods Orders
Business investment plans slowed in the fourth quarter.
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Resilient, Turbulent 2022
Fourth quarter growth resilient in the face of inflation and rate hikes.
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Labor Market Remains Tight
Quits high despite technology layoffs.
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Multifamily Drives Drop in Starts
Backlogs support single-family home projects.
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Industrial Production Plummets
Manufacturing activity weak almost across the board.
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Retail Sales Disappoint
Few categories posted gains in December.
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Inflation Eases, Services Still Hot
A drop in gasoline prices made the biggest contribution to the overall monthly decline.
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A Goldilocks Employment Report
Average hourly earnings continued to cool.
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JOLTS Underline Strong Demand for Labor
Job movements are high in professional and business services, in part due to retirements.
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Inflation Provides Lift to Construction Spending
Private nonresidential spending was driven by manufacturing demand.
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December Employment Slows
Look for gains in leisure and hospitality and health care jobs but fewer in construction and manufacturing.
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Home Sales: Beware of Cancellations
Home prices are expected to decline.
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Durable Goods Orders Better than They Look
Transportation orders hit November durables.
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Slide in Housing Continues
The silver lining is that housing responds quickly to changes in interest rates.
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Businesses Hoarded Labor in October
The labor shortage has become more secular than cyclical.
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Industrial Activity Contracts
Production of both consumer goods and business equipment dropped in November.
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Consumer Pulls Back in November
Rate hikes are accelerating the pivot on spending from goods to services.
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Won’t Stop Until the Job is Done
Market participants simply do not believe the Fed will step in and go higher for longer if inflation does not come down.
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CPI Falls Short of Expectations
More movement is needed in services costs that are sensitive to the labor market.
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Nuance at the Federal Reserve
A new slate of voting members on the FOMC could shift the debate.
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Global Weakness Widens Trade Deficit
Trade will no longer be the buffer that it was in the first half of 2022.
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November Employment Puts a 0.75% Rate Hike Back on the Table
Average hourly earnings accelerated sharply.
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Construction Spending Lost Ground in October
Private residential construction spending continued to decline.
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Consumers Dip into Savings
Expenditure increases were driven by spending on light trucks.
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Tight Labor Market Persists
The labor market remains tight, with nearly two job openings for every job seeker.
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Durable Goods Orders Soar
October orders exhibit resiliency, but gains may be short lived
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New Home Sales Mask Surge in Cancellations
The housing market slowdown has spillover effects for consumer spending
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No shocks in September JOLTS
The strong labor market is resilient.
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Multifamily Resists Single-Family Slump
High mortgage rates are shrinking the market for single-family homes.
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Industrial Sector Cooling as Economy Enters Winter
Construction activity contracted sharply.
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Prices Rose Less Than Expected in October
The October CPI report contains signs of slowing inflation.
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Employment Report Sends Mixed Messages
Employment losses in rental, leasing and construction finishing work reflect housing weakness.
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U.S. Trade Deficit Widened Sharply in September
Shift away from China shrinks trade deficit with U.S.
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Powell Walks the Talk
The chairman promises to stay the course until the job is done.
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Job Openings Jump in September
We are still looking for another ¾ point rate hike this week.
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Nonresidential Spending Supported Construction in September
Slower absorption of luxury rentals signals a downturn for multifamily next year.
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Employment Shifts into Lower Gear
The unemployment rate is expected to edge back up to 3.6%
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Ills and Chills in November
Hiring in health care is helping to drive job gains.
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Consumers Drain Savings Further
Consumers are spending more than they are earning.
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Business Starts to Pull Back
Durable goods ex-transportation fell the most in September since the COVID recession.
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Preview: The last 0.75% Hike?
Bracing for another supply shock in energy prices.
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One Quarter of Growth
Another 0.75% hike by the Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed next week.
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Labor Demand Cooled but Remained Tight in August
We may expect that quits rates will remain high for a few months before returning to pre-pandemic levels.
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September Housing Starts Tumble
Housing is one of the single largest triggers to additional consumer spending.
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Inflation Still Burns
Gains in the core CPI were driven by gains in shelter costs.
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Unemployment Rate Tumbles in September
Seeing signs of labor hoarding in the leisure and hospitality sector. .
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Global Trade Slows
Global demand will ease as inflation pressures increase.
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Job Openings Drop from Record Highs
Demand for workers was resilient in July.
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Construction Spending Continues to Soften
Only the multifamily market is supporting new build.
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Consumers Drain Savings
Consumers shifted their spending to cover the necessities of shelter and food.
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Persistent Strength in the Labor Market
The unemployment rate is expected to slip back down to 3.6%.
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New Home Sales Rose in Contrast with Existing Homes
High mortgage rates are keeping a lid on most home sales.
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Lead Indicator for Housing Craters
Some newly built, unsold homes will be rented instead.
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Heavy Manufacturing Demand Surprises to the Upside
Aircraft orders likely peaked at a major summer air show.
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Fed Crosses the Line
Inflation is not expected to cool enough to justify cuts in the fed funds rate until late in 2023 or early 2024.
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Jobs were Plentiful in July
Higher demand continued in every state.
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A Second Win for Industrial Production in September
Order backlogs are easing.
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August Industrial Production is a Tale of Two Industries, and Weather
August came in weaker than expected but business manufacturing outweighed consumer weakness.
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Spending Flatlined in September
Even higher prices did not significantly raise the amount of dollars spent.
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October Retail Sales Point to Resilient Consumer
A resilient consumer makes the Federal Reserve’s job harder.
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Consumers Opened Their Wallets in August
Lower gas prices eased pressure on households.
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Powell Legacy At Stake
Fed prioritizes price stability above all else.
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August Core Inflation Sizzles
Core inflation likely to push yearend policy rate to 4.5%.
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Trade deficit narrows for fourth consecutive month
Exports were at an all-time high in July.
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Workers Return in August
The Fed is determined to cool inflation by increasing the supply of workers.
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Construction Spending Ebbs in July
As the housing market enters a recession, the nonresidential and public sectors are picking up the baton for construction spending in the short term.
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Demand for Workers Was Resilient in July
Demand for workers was resilient in July.
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Labor Hoarding Could Impact August Payrolls
Staff shortages remain in pivotal sectors like education and child care.
