Employment Poised to Slow
Low-wage job holders were forced to take on additional jobs to make ends meet when inflation flared.
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Fed “Stays the Course”
Look for a shuffle in the ranks of the FOMC.
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Consumers Lose Momentum
The strength of the labor market is key to what happens next.
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Housing: First In, First Out of Recession
New home sales show small signs of recovery.
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Aircraft Lift Durable Goods Orders
Business investment plans slowed in the fourth quarter.
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Resilient, Turbulent 2022
Fourth quarter growth resilient in the face of inflation and rate hikes.
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Labor Market Remains Tight
Quits high despite technology layoffs.
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Multifamily Drives Drop in Starts
Backlogs support single-family home projects.
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Industrial Production Plummets
Manufacturing activity weak almost across the board.
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Retail Sales Disappoint
Few categories posted gains in December.
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Inflation Eases, Services Still Hot
A drop in gasoline prices made the biggest contribution to the overall monthly decline.
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A Goldilocks Employment Report
Average hourly earnings continued to cool.
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JOLTS Underline Strong Demand for Labor
Job movements are high in professional and business services, in part due to retirements.
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Inflation Provides Lift to Construction Spending
Private nonresidential spending was driven by manufacturing demand.
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December Employment Slows
Look for gains in leisure and hospitality and health care jobs but fewer in construction and manufacturing.
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Home Sales: Beware of Cancellations
Home prices are expected to decline.
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Durable Goods Orders Better than They Look
Transportation orders hit November durables.
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Slide in Housing Continues
The silver lining is that housing responds quickly to changes in interest rates.
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Businesses Hoarded Labor in October
The labor shortage has become more secular than cyclical.
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Industrial Activity Contracts
Production of both consumer goods and business equipment dropped in November.
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Consumer Pulls Back in November
Rate hikes are accelerating the pivot on spending from goods to services.
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Won’t Stop Until the Job is Done
Market participants simply do not believe the Fed will step in and go higher for longer if inflation does not come down.
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CPI Falls Short of Expectations
More movement is needed in services costs that are sensitive to the labor market.
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Nuance at the Federal Reserve
A new slate of voting members on the FOMC could shift the debate.
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Global Weakness Widens Trade Deficit
Trade will no longer be the buffer that it was in the first half of 2022.
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November Employment Puts a 0.75% Rate Hike Back on the Table
Average hourly earnings accelerated sharply.
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Construction Spending Lost Ground in October
Private residential construction spending continued to decline.
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Consumers Dip into Savings
Expenditure increases were driven by spending on light trucks.
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Tight Labor Market Persists
The labor market remains tight, with nearly two job openings for every job seeker.
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Durable Goods Orders Soar
October orders exhibit resiliency, but gains may be short lived
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New Home Sales Mask Surge in Cancellations
The housing market slowdown has spillover effects for consumer spending
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No shocks in September JOLTS
The strong labor market is resilient.
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Multifamily Resists Single-Family Slump
High mortgage rates are shrinking the market for single-family homes.
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Industrial Sector Cooling as Economy Enters Winter
Construction activity contracted sharply.
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Prices Rose Less Than Expected in October
The October CPI report contains signs of slowing inflation.
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Employment Report Sends Mixed Messages
Employment losses in rental, leasing and construction finishing work reflect housing weakness.
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U.S. Trade Deficit Widened Sharply in September
Shift away from China shrinks trade deficit with U.S.
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Powell Walks the Talk
The chairman promises to stay the course until the job is done.
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Job Openings Jump in September
We are still looking for another ¾ point rate hike this week.
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Nonresidential Spending Supported Construction in September
Slower absorption of luxury rentals signals a downturn for multifamily next year.
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Employment Shifts into Lower Gear
The unemployment rate is expected to edge back up to 3.6%
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Ills and Chills in November
Hiring in health care is helping to drive job gains.
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Consumers Drain Savings Further
Consumers are spending more than they are earning.
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Business Starts to Pull Back
Durable goods ex-transportation fell the most in September since the COVID recession.
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Preview: The last 0.75% Hike?
Bracing for another supply shock in energy prices.
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One Quarter of Growth
Another 0.75% hike by the Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed next week.
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Labor Demand Cooled but Remained Tight in August
We may expect that quits rates will remain high for a few months before returning to pre-pandemic levels.
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September Housing Starts Tumble
Housing is one of the single largest triggers to additional consumer spending.
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Inflation Still Burns
Gains in the core CPI were driven by gains in shelter costs.
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Unemployment Rate Tumbles in September
Seeing signs of labor hoarding in the leisure and hospitality sector. .
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Global Trade Slows
Global demand will ease as inflation pressures increase.
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Job Openings Drop from Record Highs
Demand for workers was resilient in July.
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Construction Spending Continues to Soften
Only the multifamily market is supporting new build.
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Consumers Drain Savings
Consumers shifted their spending to cover the necessities of shelter and food.
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Persistent Strength in the Labor Market
The unemployment rate is expected to slip back down to 3.6%.
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New Home Sales Rose in Contrast with Existing Homes
High mortgage rates are keeping a lid on most home sales.
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Lead Indicator for Housing Craters
Some newly built, unsold homes will be rented instead.
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Heavy Manufacturing Demand Surprises to the Upside
Aircraft orders likely peaked at a major summer air show.
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Fed Crosses the Line
Inflation is not expected to cool enough to justify cuts in the fed funds rate until late in 2023 or early 2024.
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Jobs were Plentiful in July
Higher demand continued in every state.
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A Second Win for Industrial Production in September
Order backlogs are easing.
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August Industrial Production is a Tale of Two Industries, and Weather
August came in weaker than expected but business manufacturing outweighed consumer weakness.
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October Retail Sales Point to Resilient Consumer
A resilient consumer makes the Federal Reserve’s job harder.
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Spending Flatlined in September
Even higher prices did not significantly raise the amount of dollars spent.
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Consumers Opened Their Wallets in August
Lower gas prices eased pressure on households.
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Powell Legacy At Stake
Fed prioritizes price stability above all else.
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August Core Inflation Sizzles
Core inflation likely to push yearend policy rate to 4.5%.
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Trade deficit narrows for fourth consecutive month
Exports were at an all-time high in July.
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Workers Return in August
The Fed is determined to cool inflation by increasing the supply of workers.
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Construction Spending Ebbs in July
As the housing market enters a recession, the nonresidential and public sectors are picking up the baton for construction spending in the short term.
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Demand for Workers Was Resilient in July
Demand for workers was resilient in July.
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Labor Hoarding Could Impact August Payrolls
Staff shortages remain in pivotal sectors like education and child care.
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Consumers Spent Less than Expected in July
High inflation is causing households to dip into savings to fund expenditures.
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Momentum Slows from June
Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defense orders and more closely track overall business investing plans, rose by 0.4% in July.
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Home Sales Sink
Mortgage applications to purchase a home now sit at the lowest level since 2016.
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Retail Sales Flattened in July
Consumers are spending less on discretionary items as prices rise.
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Signs of Revival in New Construction
Sentiment to purchase a home fell back to a record low in July.
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Housing Starts Lose Ground as Rates Climb
Sentiment to purchase a home fell back to a record low in July.
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Vehicles Drive Rebound in Production
Surprising strength in aerospace and autos will be unable to support industrial production overall.
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Falling Gas Prices Don’t Erase Inflation
Some prices slowed during July, but inflation pressures persisted in key sectors.
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Job Gains Surge in July
Job growth expanded in July, exceeding expectations.
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Construction Spending Collapses
State and local governments have yet to spend construction funds accrued during the pandemic.
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Employment Poised to Moderate
The ranks of those with long COVID are large and appear to be rising.
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Consumers Tap Savings to Support Spending
Inflation took a larger bite out of consumers’ wallets, spending and savings in the second quarter.
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Not a Recession, Yet
We are not in recession, but inflation is taking a toll on the health of the economy.
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Powell Primes the Pump for More Rate Hikes
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the policy setting arm of the Federal Reserve – voted to hike short-term rates by another 75 basis points at its July meeting.
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Surge in Defense Buoys Orders
Look for more aircraft orders in the second half.
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Higher Interest Rates Sap Demand from Buyers in June
Sales are shrinking, contracts are falling through but prices remain high.
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Retail sales increased 1% in June, exceeding market expectations
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers his three key takeaways from the June retail sales report.
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YoY inflation rises to 9.1% in June, exceeding forecasts.
Listen to senior economist Tim Mahedy break down the June CPI data, his forecast for what the Fed might do at the next rate meeting, whether inflation might begin to ease, and if a recession is on the horizon.
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JUNE Industrial production video
The May industrial production numbers show the impact of rising interest rates on activity in the sector, says KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy as he breaks down the key takeaways from the latest data release.
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Industrial production posts 0.2% gain in May
The May industrial production numbers show the impact of rising interest rates on activity in the sector, says KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy as he breaks down the key takeaways from the latest data release.
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May retail sales declined by 0.3% m/m, missing expectations
U.S. retail sales dropped for the first time in five months, with a 0.3% m/m decline in May. While sales missed expectations, the report was not entirely negative says KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim. Watch his analysis of the report here:
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CPI rose to 8.6% in May as inflationary pressures continue to strengthen
“A lot is riding on the next couple of inflation reports,” says KPMG’s Tim Mahedy, as he breaks down the key takeaways from the May CPI report.
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The U.S. economy shows healthy job increase in May
The U.S. economy added 390,000 new jobs in May, reflecting the markets’ continued resilience despite high inflation and rising interest rates. KPMG Senior Economist, Ken Kim gives his analysis of the May report.
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Industrial production increased in April
Industrial production increased by 1.1% in April, growing twice as fast as market expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy offers his three key takeaways from the April industrial production report.
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The U.S. economy added a robust 428,000 new jobs in April
In April, the U.S. economy added 428,000 new jobs, beating market expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim offers his three key takeaways from the report.
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Industrial production rises in March
Industrial production rose by 0.9% m/m in March, performing well above market expectations. KPMG Senior Economist Tim Mahedy breaks down the key takeaways from the March report.
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U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% in March
KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim gives his three takeaways from the March retail sales report.
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The U.S. economy added 431,000 new jobs in March
The U.S. economy added 431,000 new jobs in March while the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% m/m. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim provides his analysis on the March 2022 jobs report.
