Industries

Helping clients meet their business challenges begins with an in-depth understanding of the industries in which they work. That’s why KPMG LLP established its industry-driven structure. In fact, KPMG LLP was the first of the Big Four firms to organize itself along the same industry lines as clients.

How We Work

We bring together passionate problem-solvers, innovative technologies, and full-service capabilities to create opportunity with every insight.

Learn more

Careers & Culture

What is culture? Culture is how we do things around here. It is the combination of a predominant mindset, actions (both big and small) that we all commit to every day, and the underlying processes, programs and systems supporting how work gets done.

Learn more

February employment expected to remain strong

A very strong employment report could push the Fed to a ½ point increase.

Payroll employment is expected to rise by 200,000 jobs in February after a surge of 517,000 in January.  January figures were boosted by fewer seasonal layoffs and the return of striking workers in the University of California system in December. February represents a return to earth but is expected to remain relatively strong. Private sector hiring is expected to slip to 175,000 in February from 443,000 in January.

TSA throughput exceeded the levels of 2019 during much of February. Most of that is due to revenge travel, which remains strong. Many resorts and luxury hotels are attempting to hire up to provide services suspended during the pandemic; room cleaning is included on the list. 

That suggests that hiring in leisure and hospitality will continue to drive employment gains. The sector is one of the few that is still nearly a half million below the peak hit prior to the pandemic. 

Next up is hiring in health care. Nurses remain in short supply. Nursing homes and long-term care facilities are still facing acute staffing shortages. The services ISM and PMI surveys both showed renewed life at the start of the year.

Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%, the same as January. That would represent a slight acceleration in wages on a year-over-year basis from 4.4% in January to 4.7% in February. The key is hours worked, which moved up by 0.3% after declining in 2022. We are expecting a slight drop in hours worked over the month, which should cool the surge we saw in weekly earnings that jumped 4.7% from a year ago in January. 

The Federal Reserve will be watching closely to see whether a boost in entry-level wages from $12 to $14 per hour has any effect on wages for the lowest paid workers. Those gains tend to ripple up the wage strata because managers like to retain their advantage in pay over those they supervise.

Wage gains of 0.3% are still a little hot for the Fed, as they are more consistent with inflation in the 3-4% range than cooler inflation. Wages tend to get sticky over time, which could undermine the Fed’s efforts in cooling inflation to the point at which it no longer distorts buying behaviors.  

The unemployment rate, which is derived from the household survey, is expected to hold at 3.4% in February. Participation in the labor force, which spiked with the return of legal immigrants in the January revisions, is expected to edge down a tick to 62.3 in February. The ranks of those sick and unable to work are expected to continue to trend down but remain above the levels we saw in the 2010s. The ranks of those out and unable to work due to vacation are expected to remain extremely elevated during the month.  

A solid employment report would not necessarily be enough to push the Fed to raise rates by a half percent in March. A stronger report, with even hotter wage gains, might.

Explore more

Subscribe to insights from KPMG Economics

KPMG Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.

Meet our team

Image of Diane C. Swonk
Diane C. Swonk
Chief Economist, KPMG US

Thank you

Thank you for subscribing. You should receive a confirmation e-mail soon.

Subscribe to insights from KPMG Economics

Now more than ever, companies are using data to make informed decisions about the future of their business. KPMG Economics is continuously monitoring and analyzing economic and geopolitical data so we can provide business leaders with reliable and timely insight and analysis.

To receive our Economic Updates and other relevant content published by the KPMG Economics as soon as it is released, please provide the following details:

By submitting, you agree that KPMG LLP may process any personal information you provide pursuant to KPMG LLP's Privacy Statement.

An error occurred. Please contact customer support.

Thank you!

Thank you for contacting KPMG. We will respond to you as soon as possible.

Contact KPMG

Use this form to submit general inquiries to KPMG. We will respond to you as soon as possible.

By submitting, you agree that KPMG LLP may process any personal information you provide pursuant to KPMG LLP's Privacy Statement.

An error occurred. Please contact customer support.

Job seekers

Visit our careers section or search our jobs database.

Submit RFP

Use the RFP submission form to detail the services KPMG can help assist you with.

Office locations

International hotline

You can confidentially report concerns to the KPMG International hotline

Press contacts

Do you need to speak with our Press Office? Here's how to get in touch.

Headline