KPMG Economics

Economic Coordinates

Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.

• Americans Are Making More Money Than Ever But There's a Catch | Newsweek
  The real consumer spending rose by 0.4 percent, "the strongest pace since December," Diane Swonk, KPMG's chief economist, said in a note shared with Newsweek. "Back then, consumers were draining savings to cushion the blow of inflation. Now, the mood appears to have shifted to sustain robust spending, despite the crimp of higher rates and the persistence of high price levels," she said. "Another notable increase was a surge in spending on mass transit. It was the strongest monthly pace since September 2020. That suggests that people were returning to urban centres as they travelled, even as the return-to-work figures plateaued," Swonk pointed out.
  March 29, 2024 |  Newsweek

• Inflation isn’t coming down fast enough | CNBC 
  Inflation in the U.S. isn’t coming down fast enough as price pressures persistently linger. This has confounded even Fed officials who are closely watching for signs of progress. Some Fed officials don’t even expect three rate cuts this year as the central bank has forecast at the last meeting. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, scaled back his rate-cut projection last week, citing persistent inflation as a concern. In a post on X, Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said Bostic “has made clear is he NOT convinced inflation will fall rapidly enough to cut rapidly in 2024. He has consistently pushed back against a first half cut for a second half cut, with more progress and said he currently favors one cut in 2024,” versus two previously.
  March 26 2024 |  CNBC

• Insurance industry to be impacted by 3 trends in 2024, says expert | Insurance newsnet 
  The industry should embrace higher interest rates while they last, said Kenneth Kim, KPMG senior economist. High interest rates led to “finally seeing a meaningful return from fixed income instruments,” he said. “It looks like the Federal Reserve will achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy,” Kim said, adding that he believes the Fed will begin to cut interest rates in June.
  March 22, 2023 | Insurance newsnet

• Mortgage Rates Forecast For 2024: Experts Predict How Much Rates Will Drop | Forbes 
  Despite remaining at elevated levels, most housing market experts anticipate mortgage rates to recede over 2024, especially once the Federal Reserve begins its expected interest rate cuts. But whether lower rates will create a meaningful shift in home affordability remains to be seen. KPMG senior economist Yelena Maleyev: “Mortgage rates are expected to stay below 7% in the coming months as inflationary pressures ease and the path to [Federal Reserve] rate cuts in the second quarter remains clear. Upside surprises to inflation, employment and wages in the coming months would make the Federal Reserve consider waiting even longer to cut rates, which would then push up other interest rates, including mortgages.”
  March 21, 2023 | Forbes.com

• Housing market sees flood of new homes | Newsweek   
  "Record temperatures in the Midwest and much drier conditions in both the Midwest and South contributed to construction activity during the month," Yelena Maleyev, a senior economist at KPMG, said in a note shared with Newsweek. The multi-family segment - properties with at least five units - also saw a rebound. Completions in this area of the market jumped to 644,000 in what was the highest recorded figure in half a century, Maleyev pointed out, while the single-family segment saw the highest completions since 2007. "That is good news for the significantly undersupplied housing market," Maleyev said. 
  March 19, 2024 | Newsweek

• [Audio] Import prices rose more slowly in February. That could help bring down inflation | NPR Marketplace
  The U.S. Labor Department reported Friday that the price of imported goods rose 0.3% in February after rising 0.8% in January. A big reason import prices went up in February was because of rising energy costs. But the picture looks different when you set those costs aside, said Meagan Schoenberger, senior economist at KPMG. “Everything else outside of petroleum, oil and gas, fuel for industry, all of that did slow quite a bit,” she said. The price of imported consumer goods rose at a slower pace in February, Schoenberger said. Same with the price of imported vehicles. “Orders are down quite a bit, stocking up has slowed down significantly. So that’s good news, particularly for the new car prices that we can expect down the pipeline,” she said.
  March 15, 2024 | NPR Marketplace