Insight

KPMG Economics

A source for unbiased economic intelligence to help improve strategic decision-making.

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Diane Swonk

Chief Economist, KPMG US

+1 312-665-1000

What’s impacting labor market participation? Why are some sectors faring better than others? How do you separate the signal from the noise? KPMG Economics answers these questions and more, providing timely insight and analysis into the economic indicators. We monitor trends and identify potential opportunities that could impact your strategic objectives. Our perspectives look at both the short-term and long-term economic factors that are critical to guiding strategic decisions.

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Economic Compass

A rose, by any other name… Biannual economic outlook

Define recession: A rose by any other name

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KPMG Insights on Inflation Survey – Wave 4 (Q2 2023)

Business inflation expectations cool

Industry Insights with KPMG Economics

Discussions around the latest trends and what the future might hold across key industries with Chief Economist Diane Swonk

Explore previous insight from KPMG Economics

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On the economy

Look here for updates and insight on key economic indicators and how they affect the labor market, inflation, consumer behavior, and more.

Construction

Insight

Construction spending rose 7.2% on the year in April

Multifamily and nonresidential spending make up for moribund residential market.

National Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

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Labor market still tight in April

The surge in job openings is not a new trend.

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Durable goods orders jumped in April, but the dirt is in the details

Surge in defense spending boosted overall orders.

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Consumers dip into savings in face of sticky inflation

Both PCE and core PCE rose in April as consumer spending jumped.

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Pockets of optimism spring up for the housing market

Low inventory of homes is keeping home prices elevated.

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The number of job leavers slowed in March

The quits rate was the lowest in two years.

Housing Starts

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Demand for single-family construction remains strong

Multifamily construction expands in the Midwest and West.

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Industrial production exceeds expectations

Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output rose 0.4%.

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Retail sales regain ground

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Year-on-year inflation falls below 5.0%

Consumer prices turned down to simmer.

Wages, labor and employment

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Payroll employment accelerates

Job gains included healthcare, professional services and leisure and hospitality.

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Trade deficit narrows on weak imports

The trade deficit narrowing underscores that the rest of the world is holding up remarkably well.

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Powell corrals the cats with a hawkish pause

Fed Chairman reiterated the commitment to bring down inflation.

National Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

Insight

The labor market cooled in March

The job openings rate was the lowest in two years.

Insight

Construction spending grew 0.3%

Higher mortgage rates weigh on single-family home construction plans.

Hard to derail underlying inflation without increased unemployment, says KPMG's Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, and CNBC’s Steve Liesman, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the strong April jobs report, the Fed’s tightening agenda, and dissonance between the market and the Fed.
May 5, 2023 | CNBC.com

The future of interest rates looks...steady - Marketplace
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, explains the messaging that came out of the May Fed meeting.
May 4, 2023 | Marketplace.org

[Audio] The economy is slowing, but inflation’s sticking around
Monetary policymakers' fight against inflation has centered around hiking interest rates to cool off the economy, and today's economic data shows just that — GDP growth slowed considerably last quarter. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk discusses what that means for the Fed's inflation fight going forward..
April 27, 2023 | NPR Marketplace

Amid slowed growth, businesses are scaling back. Get ready for a bumpy second half of 2023
“It's very possible that with small businesses pulling back, which have been the engine of growth in the economy, that the next quarter could be much weaker," KPMG economist Yelena Maleyev.
April 27, 2023 | Inc.com

U.S. growth cools in first quarter as recession fears deepen
“…the strength in consumer spending for the quarter as a whole masks the sharp loss in spending power over the course of that time.” Senior economist Ken Kim.
April 27, 2023 | Agence France Presse

It's Deja Vu in the Housing Market—Is It 2006 All Over Again?
“Parallels can be drawn because of how quickly home prices have risen over the past few years,” says Yelena Maleyev, an economist at KPMG. “But that’s where the comparisons would end.”
April 25, 2023 | Realtor.com

KPMG Economics in the news:

The Hill: Fed set to accelerate fight against inflation “The political pressure on the Fed will intensify in the months and weeks to come. Members will become political piñatas. It is not their first rodeo, but this time is truly different as they will be pushing to quell, not just cool, inflation,” Diane Swonk, Chief Economist. (20 September 2022)
Vox: The Fed raised interest rates again. What does that mean for the economy and inflation? “The Fed themselves have said, well we need to see some kind of an increase in unemployment to slow things down more,” Swonk said. “But that may be a harder thing to get than they anticipate.” Chief Economist Diane Swonk. (21 September 2022)
Bloomberg: Fed Delivers 3rd Straight Big Rate Hike “Inflation is more inertial,” says Chief Economist Diane Swonk. (21 September 2022)
CNBC: Fed's three-quarters of a point hike due, but forecast is top focus “It’s not what they do, it’s what they say. This is our first actual tightening road map. We had theoretical road maps up until now, but from the Fed’s point of view they’re crossing into a world of tightening. That’s an important thing,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. (20 September 2022)
Bloomberg: Watch Market Finally Digesting Rate Hiking Cycle: KPMG's Swonk “There’s no muscle memory for an inflation rate hiking cycle,” Chief Economist Diane Swonk. (07 October 2022)
Quartz: The US labor market is resisting Fed rate hikes “In most other economic cycles, we’d be very happy with such a solid report, especially coming from the labor market side,” said Ken Kim, a senior economist at KPMG. “But this just speaks volumes about the upside-down world that we’re in, because the strength of the unemployment report keeps the pressure on the Fed to continue with their rate increases going forward.” (07 October 2022)